MEMO: Impact of Chris Christie Withdrawal

January 10, 2024



TO: Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, Donald J. Trump for President 2024


FROM: John McLaughlin


DATE: January 10, 2024


RE: Impact of Chris Christie Withdrawal


From our latest tracking trends, in Iowa, Chris Christie was not much of a factor and was going to be embarrassed.


He only received 6% of the vote – if they showed up.  And only 4% thought that he could win.


In the 2 way Iowa ballot that would factor a Christie withdrawal, President Trump still wins decisively - Trump 56%-40% Haley.


In fact, 34% of Christie voters are unfavorable to Haley. They may not show up at all.


In New Hampshire, Chris Christie was more of a factor but is strongly disliked by the majority of New Hampshire primary voters (59% unfavorable to only 37% favorable).


Christie did receive 16% of the vote, but only 6% of all voters thought that he could win.


However, the Chris Christie voters are not the traditional New Hampshire Republican primary voters. Christie voters, because Joe Biden is not on the ballot in a serious New Hampshire Democratic primary, are more likely to be behavioral Democrats who are independents or undeclared and invading the Republican primary. They would usually vote in a Democratic primary.


Christie voters are mainly independents 63% and 72% are either liberals or moderates. 76% of Christie voters did NOT vote in the 2020 New Hampshire presidential primary.


Christie’s withdrawal to attract his voters will only pull Nikki Haley further to the left.


For this reason, in the 2-way New Hampshire ballot that would factor a Christie withdrawal, President Trump still wins - Trump 52%-44% Haley.


Furthermore, Chris Christie has very serious negatives and should be a liability to Nikki Haley. These voters clearly remember Chris Christie’s embrace of Barack Obama that caused Mitt Romney’s loss and more recent mean-spirited attacks on Donald Trump that can only help Joe Biden.


In New Hampshire, Christie has seriously very high unfavorable ratings among critical voter segments. No one seems to like Chris Christie except his own voters.


Christie’s high negative ratings made him unelectable in New Hampshire. Maybe as disliked as he is in Ft. Lee, New Jersey. Christie’s support for Haley will be a major liability with the vast majority of New Hampshire Republican primary voters. 


Christie Unfavorable Ratings:


Trump Voters 91%


DeSantis Voters 77%


Ramaswamy Voters 90%


Undecided 80%


Even 32% of Haley voters are unfavorable to Christie.


Fox News Watchers 74%


Republicans 66%


Independents 46%


Conservatives 71%


Gun owners 62%


Protestants 61%


Catholics 60%


French Canadian ethnics 69%


Italian Americans 71%


In fact 41% of Christie voters are unfavorable to Haley and will probably now not vote in this primary.


Among New Hampshire Republican primary voters, Chris Christie is radioactive. If his withdrawal was meant to help Nikki Haley, it will further polarize the primary to be a battle between the Trump conservatives and Haley’s DC establishment base.