NEW POLLING MEMO: SUPPORT FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP SURGES AFTER MANHATTAN DA INDICTMENT
April 01, 2023
To: Donald J. Trump for President
From: John McLaughlin, McLaughlin & Associates
Date: April 1, 2023
This survey of 1,000 likely 2024 general election voters conducted on behalf of the Donald J. Trump for President campaign was completed over a two-day period on March 31 and April 1, following media reports that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg planned to indict President Trump.
Survey questions of the 1,000 likely general election voters have an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. The accuracy of the responses from the 452 likely Republican primary voters is +/- 4.6% at a 95% confidence interval.
All interviews were conducted online; survey invitations were distributed randomly within predetermined geographic units. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a nationwide general election.
Of note: President Trump received a significant increase over his opponents in full-field and one-on-one primary election ballot tests, while his decisive lead over Joe Biden in a general election ballot test remains level.
Additionally, a majority of general election voters now see the attacks on President Trump as making things worse and dividing the country while ignoring real issues, and a plurality of general election voters think the justice system has been weaponized against President Trump.
General election voters replying that the indictment news would make them “more likely” to vote for President Trump have a 13-point advantage over those replying that the indictment news would make them “less likely” to vote for President Trump.
- In a full-field ballot test of 14 potential Republican candidates, President Trump leads with 51%, DeSantis 21%, Mike Pence 6%, Nikki Haley 4%, and everyone else is at 2% or less. In our January survey, President Trump led the field with 43%, and DeSantis was at 31%. Trump’s lead has gone from 12 points to 30 points.
- In a one-on-one primary ballot test, President Trump beats Governor DeSantis 63% to 30%. Trump’s lead is up to 33 points from his January lead of 12 points (52% to 40%).
- Among Republican primary voters, including independents who vote in Republican primaries, 65% want President Trump to run again. This is up from 58% in January.
- Republican primary voters clearly prefer President Trump as their strongest candidate to beat Joe Biden. Republican primary voters say Trump is better positioned to beat Joe Biden at 61% vs. 33% who prefer someone else.
- 71% of general election voters say the country is on the wrong track, up from 65% in our March survey. 69% of general election voters say the Country has gone backward in the past two years.
- In a general election ballot test, President Trump leads Joe Biden 47-43. This number is virtually unchanged from our March 2023 survey.
- Most American voters now see the attacks on President Trump as making things worse and dividing the country. By a margin of 56% to 34%, general election voters agree that “By continuing to attack President Trump, Joe Biden and the radical left are making things worse and keeping the country divided.” Republican primary voters agree 86% to 9%.
- Almost six in ten general election voters, 57%, agree that “Joe Biden and the Democrats are spending too much time and resources going after Donald Trump with phony political attacks that are a waste of time and taxpayer dollars instead of trying to solve the country’s real problems on issues like the economy, inflation, crime, immigration, and national security. Only 35% disagreed. Republican primary voters agreed 88% to 8%.
- Most general election voters see the justice system being highly politicized. A plurality of voters, 48%, agree with the statement “Joe Biden and the radical left have weaponized the justice system to prosecute their political opponents.” Only 39% disagreed. Republican primary voters agreed with this statement 82% to 11%.
- Notably, a majority of general election voters surveyed see a double standard of justice where the Biden family corruption escapes investigation and President Trump is charged. The majority of voters, 55%, agree with the statement “Under President Biden there is a double standard of criminal justice where the alleged Hunter Biden and Biden family corruption escapes indictments while President Trump is continually investigated looking for crimes to prosecute him.” Only 33% of all voters disagreed. Republican primary voters agreed with this statement 85% to 10%.
- For most general election voters, the Manhattan DA’s indictment appears rigged against President Trump. Only 37% of all voters say President Trump can get a fair trial in Manhattan, while 47% say it will not be a fair trial. Among Republican primary voters, only 18% say that Trump can get a fair trial in Manhattan, with 72% of respondents saying it will not be a fair trial.
To read the entire memo, click here.